🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. However, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest surprise.

Yet the latest field is profoundly different. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions declining and recent also-rans ascending together. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still